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Forecast Media Consumption during the Spring Festi...

群邑智库  · 公众号  ·  · 2021-02-09 18:00

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While the time of staying at home increased correspondingly, the use of video and game will increase when comparing the days before the festival and will be same as that during the festival last year. It is expected that there will be a YOY decrease in two weeks after the festival.

  • The effect of the Spring Festival Gala is strengthened, consumers basically only flow within China, so that the audience expands : the Spring Festival Gala is the content with the strongest festival atmosphere, and consumers need such content to enhance the flavor of the new year.
  • There have been many films arranged in the new year's festival. Under the premise that the epidemic situation is controllable, the cinema related media will get more exposure : in the new year's festival films, Chinatown detective III has won more than 4 million "want to see" in cat's eye, and the pre-sale box office has exceeded 200 million. During the Spring Festival, when the population flow is low and the epidemic situation is controllable, cinemas will become an important place for consumers' entertainment.


01

The advocation of government affects the flow of population, and population flow affects cross city/province transport  and related outdoor media

From January 25th, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council have recently issued the Notice on Ensuring the Service for People Staying Put during the Spring Festival. The Notice requires to guide people to stay put during the festival in a reasonable and orderly manner. People in high-risk areas should celebrate the New Year in local to minimize the movement of people and prevent the spread of the epidemic due to it. In the medium-risk areas, people should stay local and the approval of the local epidemic prevention and control agency is required for special circumstances in which travel is needed. In low-risk areas, people are encouraged to celebrate the New Year in local and not travel unless necessary.

Last year, the full-scale outbreak approaching New Year’s Eve had little effect on the overall Spring Festival transportation before the holiday. From the population movement data released by the Ministry of Transport, we see that the population migration from Laba to New Year’s Eve in 2021 will be significantly lower than the same period last year. However, due to early preparations and response this year, the epidemic is relatively controllable and sporadic in  small-scale of regions, and the large number of people that hit the road and return to work after the holiday will still arrive as expected. Although the number of people has decreased compared with previous years, it will increase YOY. And due to needs of quarantine, the Spring Festival travel rush may be extended. As a result, the number of audiences for outdoor media related to cross city/province transport, such as airport, high-speed rail, and highway, has dropped significantly YOY before the holiday, and increased after the holiday.


Passengers of Highway, Airport and Railway YOY

(2021 vs 2020 vs 2019)


02

According to the pattern of media use, it is closely related to consumers' lives . The travel distance, the length of  leisure time, the way of living, and the route of daily life all affect consumers' media usage. According to  the monitoring data from 2019, it can be seen that the number of travel APP users is highly correlated with the number of passengers on roads, railways and civil aviation, with a correlation coefficient of 92%. The number of video entertainment APP users and the number of travel APP users are highly negatively correlated, with a correlation coefficient of -83%.








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