高盛：中国本土机构如何看经济形势？

调研纪要 · 公众号 · · 2025-04-29 23:24

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Key Takeaways:

要点：

1. Heightened Concerns Over US-China Trade War

1. 对美中贸易战的担忧加剧

Onshore clients have limited risk appetite for the near term (1-2 months), citing rising market volatility and uncertainty around the US-China trade war. They are exploring a game theory framework to assess US-China economic competitiveness and the ultimate goal of the Trump administration — whether to bring manufacturing back to the US or focus on constraining China. Local investors are also closely monitoring US political and economic developments, particularly to assess whether the US will feel the pressure to return to negotiations with China. They believe China should remain hawkish, as restrained responses are unlikely to prompt the US back to the negotiation table. Key concerns include coordinated tariffs blocking Chinese exports and US escalation beyond a trade war.

境内客户在近期（1 - 2 个月）风险偏好有限，原因是市场波动性上升以及美中贸易战存在不确定性。他们正在探索用博弈论框架来评估美中经济竞争力，以及特朗普政府的最终目标——是将制造业带回美国，还是专注于遏制中国。本土投资者也在密切关注美国政治和经济动态，尤其是评估美国是否会感受到重返与中国谈判桌的压力。他们认为中国应保持强硬态度，因为克制回应不太可能促使美国回到谈判桌。主要担忧包括联合关税阻碍中国出口，以及美国在贸易战之外进一步升级行动。