近期的 Top 期刊越来越强调模型不确定性,比如:控制变量也有好坏之分、是否存在非线性特征、不同模型的优劣对比等。这就需要进行各类检验,以便排除各种「混杂因素」和「似是而非」的论述,让论文的研究结论具有排他性,经济含义也更为清晰明确。本专题包括假设检验的基本原理、模型筛选和对比检验,以及「不容易做好」的稳健性检验等内容。在介绍检验方法和命令的同时,重点在于如何解释它们的经济含义,如何选择合适的检验方法并采用合适的方式加以呈现和分析。
系数的联合检验:Wald,LR,LM 检验
test, testparm, lincom, nlcom, testnl
结果的汇集与呈现
模型比较:嵌套模型比较、非嵌套模型比较
R2 分解和贡献度分析
系数差异检验:Chow 检验,SUR,Bootstrap,排序检验
内生性检验
稳健性检验、安慰剂检验
参考文献:
Hansen B E . 2021. Econometrics. Princeton University Press. Data and Contents, PDF. Chap 9.
Ye, D., Y. K. Ng, Y. Lian, 2015, Culture and happiness, Social Indicators Research, 123 (2): 519-547. -Link-, -PDF-, PDF2, -cited-,R2 分解,课件中提供复现代码
Akcigit, U., J. Grigsby, T. Nicholas, S. Stantcheva, 2022, Taxation and innovation in the twentieth century, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137 (1): 329-385. -Link-, -PDF-, -Appendix-, -cited-, -Replication-
Roodman, David. 2009, How to do Xtabond2: An Introduction to Difference and System GMM in Stata, Stata Journal, 9(1): 86–136. -PDF-
Williams, R., P. D. Allison, E. Moral-Benito, 2018, Linear Dynamic Panel-data Estimation Using Maximum Likelihood and Structural Equation Modeling, Stata Journal, 18(2): 293–326. -PDF-, -PDF2-
B2b. 面板 VAR 模型
面板 VAR 模型可以视为多变量动态面板模型,多用于估计和检验几个内生变量的动态关系。基于 IRF 和 FEVD,我们也可以进行预测。该模型在经济增长、能源、财政、创新等领域有广泛应用。
VAR 模型简介
冲击反应函数 (IRF)
方差分解 (FEVD)
面板 Granger 检验
允许外生变量的 PVAR 模型
应用实例(介绍 2 篇论文)
参考文献:
Michael R. M. Abrigo, I. Love, 2016, Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregression in Stata, Stata Journal, 16(3): 778–804. -PDF-, -PDF2-, -cited-
Acheampong, A. O., 2018, Economic growth, co2 emissions and energy consumption: What causes what and where?, Energy Economics, 74: 677-692. -Link-, -PDF1-, -Replication-
Stata 范例:Akcigit, U., J. Grigsby, T. Nicholas, S. Stantcheva, 2022, Taxation and innovation in the twentieth century, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137 (1): 329-385. -Link-, -PDF-, -Replication-
扩展阅读:
Dell, M., B. F. Jones, B. A. Olken, 2012, Temperature shocks and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century, American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics, 4 (3): 66-95. -Link-, -PDF-, -Replication-
Kahn, M. E., K. Mohaddes, R. N. C. Ng, M. H. Pesaran, M. Raissi,J.-C. Yang, 2021, Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis, Energy Economics, 104: 105624. -Link-, -PDF1-, -PDF2-, -Replication-, Cited. lincom, xtmg
Ditzen, J. 2021. "Estimating long-run effects and the exponent of cross-sectional dependence: An update to xtdcce2". Stata Journal: Promoting communications on statistics and Stata, 21 (3): 687-707. Link, PDF1. PDF2.
Chudik, A., K. Mohaddes, M. H. Pesaran, M. Raissi, 2017, Is there a debt-threshold effect on output growth?, Review of Economics and Statistics, 99 (1): 135-150. -Link-, -PDF-
Seo, M. H., S. Kim, Y. J. Kim, 2019, Estimation of dynamic panel threshold model using stata, Stata Journal, 19 (3): 685-697. -Link-, -PDF-
Wang, Q., 2015, Fixed-Effect Panel Threshold Model using Stata, Stata Journal, 15(1): 121–134. -PDF-
Zhou, X., J. Du, 2021, Does environmental regulation induce improved financial development for green technological innovation in china?, Journal of Environmental Management, 300: 113685. -Link-, -PDF-
Chernozhukov, Victor, Denis Chetverikov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo, Christian Hansen, and Whitney Newey. 2017. "Double/Debiased/Neyman Machine Learning of Treatment Effects." American Economic Review, 107 (5): 261-265. -Link-, -PDF-, -Replication-R, -2-
Chernozhukov, V., D. Chetverikov, M. Demirer, E. Duflo, C. Hansen, W. Newey,J. Robins, 2018, Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters, The Econometrics Journal, 21 (1): C1-C68. -Link-, -PDF-, Replication
B6. 回归控制法 (RCM) 与合成控制法 (SCM)
虽然 DID 和 RDD 应用广泛,但二者也各有其局限。DID 依赖于平行趋势假设, 但多数情况下, 政策干预在处理组和控制组之间的分配往往是非随机的, 使得这一假设往往难以满足 (Abadie er al., 2010)。对于 RDD 而言, 尽管它更好地克服内生性问题, 但只能估计局部政策效果, 对样本量要求也比较高。
鉴于此, Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003)、Abadie et al. (2010) 以及 Abadie et al. (2015) 提出了「合成控制法」, 通过使用潜在控制组加权平均的方式来估计「处理组反事实结果」, 进而用干预后时段内处理组与合成反事实组的经济后果之差来衡量政策效果。
受 Abadie et al. (2010) 启发, Hsiao et al. (2009) 提出了 “回归控制法 (regression control method, RCM)", 并在 Hsiao and Zhou (2019) 中做了进一步拓展。而 SCM 本身也有多种扩展, 包括 “非参数 SCM" (Cerulli, 2020), "Lasso-SCM" (Abadie and L'hour, 2021; Hollingsworth and Wing, 2020), “合成 DID” (Arkhangelsky et al., 2021) 等。
回归控制法和合成控制法简介
Lasso-RCM:基于 Lasso 等惩罚回归的 RCM
Lasso-SCM:基于 Lasso 等惩罚回归的 SCM
队列 SCM 及处理效应的置信区间
RCM 与 SCM 的对比
基于标准化转换的统计推断方法
参考文献:
Abadie, A., A. Diamond, J. Hainmueller, 2010, Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of california's tobacco control program, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105 (490): 493-505. PDF
Abadie, A., J. L’Hour, 2021, A penalized synthetic control estimator for disaggregated data, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 116 (536): 1817-1834. -Link-, -PDF-, PDF2
Hsiao, C., H. S. Ching, S. K. Wan, 2012, A panel data approach for program evaluation: Measuring the benefits of political and economic integration of hong kong with mainland china, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 27 (5): 705-740. -Link-, -PDF-
Hsiao, C., Q. Zhou, 2019, Panel parametric, semiparametric, and nonparametric construction of counterfactuals, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 34 (4): 463-481. -Link-, -PDF-
Cattaneo, M. D., Y. Feng, R. Titiunik, 2021, Prediction intervals for synthetic control methods, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 116 (536): 1865-1880. -Link-, -PDF-, PDF2, Appendix, Replication
Cattaneo, M. D., Y. Feng, F. Palomba, R. Titiunik, 2022, scpi: Uncertainty quantification for synthetic control methods, arXiv:2202.05984. -Link-, -PDF-, Replication
Cattaneo, M. D., Y. Feng, F. Palomba, R. Titiunik, 2023, Uncertainty quantification in synthetic controls with staggered treatment adoption, arXiv:2210.05026. PDF, Replication