主要观点总结
文章讨论了贵州茅台市值下降的原因，涉及反腐、房地产市场低迷、新兴纸牌游戏的影响以及茅台自身产量和分销问题。文章还分析了茅台在中国社会中的角色和近年来股价波动的情况。
关键观点总结
关键观点1: 茅台市值下降的原因。
反腐运动、房地产市场的低迷影响了茅台的消费群体，新的纸牌游戏可能改变了商务宴请文化进而影响茅台的需求，同时茅台的产量扩张和分销控制问题也加剧了市场担忧。
关键观点2: 茅台在中国社会中的角色。
茅台是中国白酒界的龙头，市值曾一度超越科技巨头腾讯，但其角色和市场需求受到多种因素的影响。
关键观点3: 新兴纸牌游戏对茅台市场的影响。
新兴纸牌游戏如掼蛋在商务晚宴中的普及可能改变了商务宴请的文化，从而影响茅台等传统酒品的消费需求。
关键观点4: 其他影响茅台市值的原因。
包括消费者信心的减弱、公司产量扩大和分销控制的不足等也是影响茅台市值的重要因素。
正文
baijiu is by
far China’s favourite booze. Vintage cases fetch tens of thousands of dollars.
贵州茅台在中国社会中的角色颇为复杂。这家国有企业生产的烈性透明状白酒，至今仍是中国人最为钟爱的酒品。一箱陈年茅台酒的价格可高达数万美元。
In 2021 it was briefly worth a throat-scorching $500bn and in 2022 it
eclipsed
Tencent, a digital giant, to become for a time the most valuable Chinese listed company.
2021年，贵州茅台的市值一度飙升至惊人的5000亿美元；2022年，其市值甚至超越了数字巨头腾讯，成为中国市值最高的上市公司。
Today its market capitalisation is half
that. Some of the decline has to do with one’s crackdown on graft, before which
prized bottles of the sorghum-based firewater would often change hands in place
of cash. When in 2020 state TV accused Moutai of benefiting from bribery, $25bn
instantly evaporated from its market capitalisation.
然而，时至今日，其市值已缩水至当年的一半。市值下降的部分原因与反腐运动有关。在此之前，这种以高粱为原料的烈酒常被用作现金的替代品进行交易。2020年，当国家电视台指责茅台受益于贿赂行为时，其市值瞬间蒸发了250亿美元。
Yet the most recent slide in the company’s
share price, which is down by 14% since early May, does not appear to be
related to anti-corruption campaigns. Moutai has not been subject to a recent
state media hit-piece or government investigation.
然而，该公司股价最近一次下跌（自5月初以来已下跌14%）似乎与反腐运动无关。茅台近期并未受到官方媒体的批评或政府的调查。
Its revenues grew by nearly a fifth in the first quarter, year on year, to 46bn yuan ($6bn). Net profit jumped by 16%, to 24bn yuan. Its margins remain as eye-watering as its booze. What is going on?
其第一季度收入同比增长近五分之一，达到460亿元人民币（约合60亿美元），净利润增长16%，达到240亿元人民币。其利润率仍然如同其酒水一样令人瞩目。那么，究竟发生了什么呢？
The mystery of Moutai has captivated
equity analysts, businesspeople and baijiu
aficionados
alike. Two colourful theories are making the rounds.
茅台之谜吸引了众多股票分析师、商人和白酒爱好者的关注。目前有两种不同的理论正在流传。
One has to do with the woes of formerly
prodigious
Moutai buyers. Property tycoons, said to have been among the
biggest, are in the midst of a particularly severe dry spell.
