事件：公司發佈2023年度業績預告。2023年，公司預計實現營業收入100-105億元，同比增長20.05%-26.05%；實現歸母淨利潤-8.0至-8.6億元，同比減少1198.95%-1281.37%。2023年第四季度，公司預計實現營業收入34.2-39.2億元，同比增長101%-130%，環比增長19%-37%；實現歸母淨利潤0.23-0.83億元，同比增長117%-161%，環比增長108%-129%。
2023E preview: potentially pushing past RMB10bn revenue for the first time
Key metrics: Longsys Electronics released a 2023E earnings preview with revenue ranging RMB10bn-10.5bn, up 20.05-26.05%, and it expects a net loss result of RMB800m-860m, down 1,198.95-1,281.37%. For 23Q4E, it guides a revenue range of RMB3.42bn-3.92bn, up 101-130% yoy and up 19-37% qoq, and net profit of RMB23m-83m, up 117-161% yoy and up 108-129% qoq.
點評：2023年全年營收首次突破百億元，23Q4業績大幅改善，有望實現扭虧爲盈，淨利潤同環比漲幅均超過100%。存儲週期已觸底反彈，NAND價格短期內或再漲50%，預計公司產品線中NAND佔比約90%，有望充分受益NAND漲價行情，看好存儲週期復甦+eSSD等核心產品業績放量+車規市場佔有率提升+縱向產業鏈佈局驅動公司高速發展。
Implications: our key takeaways are that guided 2023E revenue breaks the RMB10bn level for the first time, while a robust 23Q4E turns around the loss trend to profit with an over 100% net profit increase in both yoy and qoq terms. From here on, we anticipate its storage business cycle will bottom out to lead NAND prices to rise 50% over the short term. Longsys would gain substantially, given that NAND storage makes up 90% of its product portfolio. We anticipate a fast-growth trajectory ahead on key catalysts like a storage cycle recovery, good results from key products like enterprise solid-state drives (eSSD), expansion of its automotive market share and its vertical supply chain buildout.
行業端原廠減產效果顯現，存儲現貨行情跟隨資源成本上揚，預計2024年行業供應將低於NAND和DRAM的需求，存儲產品價格有望持續增長，江波龍NAND產品佔比絕大頭，有望持續受益。供應方面，2023年美光、三星等原廠紛紛宣佈減產，根據美光科技公佈 2023 年 9 月-11 月的財季數據顯示，庫存週轉天數相較上一季的 170 天下降至 159 天。美光2024財年bit供應增長計劃遠低於DRAM和NAND的需求增長，美光將減少2024 財年的庫存天數，CFM閃存市場預計2024日曆年行業供應將低於DRAM和NAND的需求。需求方面，據CFM閃存市場預測，1）2023年數據中心服務器出貨量出現兩位數百分比下降後，2024年服務器總出貨量將出現中個位數百分比增長。2）PC銷量在連續兩年出現兩位數百分比下降之後，到2024年將出現低至中個位數百分比的增長。3）在移動領域，智能手機需求顯示出復甦跡象，2024年智能手機出貨量將小幅增長。4）工業和汽車市場邊緣人工智能的擴散持續增加，對內存需求也將顯著增加。支持人工智能的工業PC的內存容量比標準PC將增長3-5倍，與標準非AI視頻攝像機相比，支持AI 的邊緣視頻安全攝像機的內存容量增加了8倍。價格方面，Trendforce預估2024年第一季NAND Flash合約價季漲幅約15-20%， DRAM合約價季漲幅約13-18%，其中Mobile DRAM持續領漲。預計江波龍產品線中NAND佔比約90%，公司有望受益2024年存儲行業復甦，實現穩定高增。
Key storage catalysts and trends in 2024E: price uptrend vs supply downtrend
We note that original brand manufacturers (OBM) have been making production cuts and storage spot prices have trended upward with rising resource costs. Hence, we expect NAND and DRAM supply will fall below demand levels in 2024E, which would maintain the rise in storage product prices. This augurs well for Longsys, which produces the lion’s share of NAND products in the market.
Supply downtrend: OBMs like Micron and Samsung had announced production cuts in 2023. Micron’s results report shows inventory turnover fell to 159 days in the Sep-Nov 2023 quarter vs 170 days in the previous quarter. The company plans to reduce inventory days in FY24E (ending August 2024) with far slower bit supply growth relative to DRAM and NAND demand growth. This accords with the projections of data website ChinaFlashMarket (CFM), which sees DRAM and NAND supply falling short of demand in 2024E.
Demand growth: CFM forecasts a pick-up in server and PC shipments in 2024E, among other trends:
•Servers: in the wake of a double-digit decline in data center server shipments in 2023, the data provider expects server shipments in the industry will increase at a mid-single-digit in 2024E.
•PCs: after two straight years of a double-digit decline in PC sales, CFM expects low-to-mid single-digit growth through 2024E.
•Mobile phones: the smartphone market is showing signs of a demand recovery, so shipments could show a slight uptick in 2024E.
•AI-led edge computing: memory demand is fueled by the growing proliferation of edge computing devices powered by artificial intelligence for the industrial and automotive markets. CFM projects that memory capacity for AI-enabled industrial PCs will rise 3-5x more than that for standard PCs in 2024E, while memory capacity for AI-enhanced video security cameras will expand 8x that of standard devices.
Price uptrend: data provider TrendForce projects NAND flash contract prices will increase 15-20% qoq in 24Q1E, with DRAM contract prices increasing 13-18% qoq, where mobile DRAM would lead the uptrend. With NAND flashes accounting for some 90% of Longsys’ product portfolio, a recovery of the storage industry in 2024E augurs well for the company, which we believe will steer a stable and high-growth trajectory.
國際領先的綜合性半導體存儲龍頭，Lexar+Foresee品牌價值不斷彰顯。江波龍主要從事Flash及DRAM存儲器研發、設計和銷售，提供消費級、工規級、車規級存儲器及行業存儲軟硬件應用解決方案。公司自主培育品牌FORESEE面向工業市場ToB+收購Lexar開拓消費類ToC存儲高端市場，品牌收入結構不斷優化，聚焦行業應用與高端消費市場。除自有品牌FORESEE外，公司2017年將Lexar納入版圖，Lexar聚焦高端消費，是公司拓展海外市場的重要製程。2021年1-9月公司移動存儲產品存儲卡全球市場份額位列Top2，2020年嵌入式存儲產品eMMC市場份額位列全球第七。公司依託Lexar品牌聚焦高端消費類市場，2019 年至 2021 年，Lexar在存儲卡以及閃存盤領域均排名全球第三。2023H1 Lexar(雷克沙)品牌業務全球銷售收入達到 9.56 億元，在全球存儲行業嚴重承壓的大背景下，實現了同比26.08%的增長，Lexar(雷克沙)品牌在全球存儲 To C 市場的影響力進一步凸顯，零售業務覆蓋國家已達 52 個，Lexar(雷克沙)品牌在中東地區、大洋洲、南亞(如印度)的銷售收入明顯增長，相應市場同比增幅達到 42%-82%之間，構成了 Lexar(雷克沙)品牌全球銷售收入增長的新生力量。
A global integrated storage leader with dual Lexar and Foresee brand leverage
Twin power brands: the core business of Longsys covers R&D, design and sales of flash and DRAM memory devices for the consumer, industrial and automotive markets, along with industrial storage software and hardware application solutions. The company had cultivated its proprietary brand Foresee for the B2B industrial market and acquired Lexar in 2017 as well as drive its foray into the high-end B2C storage market. The company continues to enhance the Lexar revenue mix toward industry and high-end consumer markets.
High-end B2C: Lexar’s high-end consumer advantage is a key prong on the Longsys global expansion roadmap. The company commanded the second largest share of the global market for mobile storage products and memory cards over Jan-Sep 2021, and placed seventh for embedded multimedia cards (aka eMMC) as of 2020. Lexar took the world’s third largest share in the memory card and flash drive markets in 2019-21. Its strong consumer branding was evident when Lexar went on to generate RMB956m in global sales revenue in 23H1, up 26.08% yoy, at a time when the global industry was under intense pressure. Out of the more than 50 countries in its retail markets, the Middle East, Oceania and South Asia (including India) registered particularly strong growth rates at 42-82%, becoming a new revenue growth driver for Lexar’s global sales.
AIGC對AI服務器的需求指數級提升，中國企業級固態硬盤市場份額亟待提升，信創將帶來服務器存儲器國產化趨勢，公司eSSD和RDIMM產品量產出貨有望帶來後續業績快速增長。每一代GPT模型的參數量高速增長，與算力聚焦在“算”不同，數據存力是數據生產要素處理的綜合能力體現，當存儲效率低的時候，算力很難發揮作用。當前我國存算投資比例相比美國、西歐明顯失衡，存儲或將成爲經濟發展特別是高算力領域的短板。ChatGPT作爲大數據+大模型+大算力的產物，或將帶動AI服務器指數級提升，AI服務器可以擁有常規服務器八倍的DRAM容量和三倍的NAND容量。2021 年英特爾、三星、美光等國際存儲原廠佔中國企業級 SSD 市場份額合計超過 70%，居主導地位。隨着國家對數據安全自主可控的重視程度不斷增加，存儲器作爲數據存儲的直接載體，其對於數據安全可控戰略的落地及實現具有關鍵作用，隨着國家政策的推動，在以運營商爲主的公有云市場迎來發展的同時，客戶基於本地化和安全等考慮，也將會考慮更多地採用國產 eSSD。截止至2023年底，公司 eSSD、RDIMM 產品已經通過包括聯想、京東雲、BiliBili 等重要客戶的認證，並且已經取得了部分客戶的正式訂單實現了量產出貨。公司 eSSD、RDIMM 產品的量產出貨代表公司在企業級存儲這一關鍵市場取得了新的進展，將爲公司業績增長帶來新的增量。公司企業級存儲產品於 2023 年取得部分客戶的批量訂單，將爲 2024 年的快速增長打下基礎。
Chinese demand could expand exponentially on AIGC catalysts
In view of China’s urgent need to expand its share of the global eSSD market, we believe tech innovations would help increase the local production rate in the server memory market. Longsys could expand its growth prospects by achieving mass shipments of eSSDs and registered dual in-line memory modules (RDIMM).
Demand drivers: with each successive generation of the GPT large language model (LLM), the number of parameters rises exponentially. While the high-powered computing capacity affects computation, data storage capacity relates to a comprehensive ability to process data production elements, where low storage could hamper computing performance. Relative to the US and Western Europe, China’s storage and computing capacities currently account for a small proportion of its investments. Storage capacity could potentially be China’s weak link in its future economic development, especially the high-performance computing market. Bear in mind that ChatGPT, as a product of big data, LLMs and high-performance computing, could exponentially spur AI server market growth. AI server capacities could potentially equate 8x the DRAM capacity and 3x the NAND capacity of conventional servers.
Policy enablement: global storage OBMs dominate the Chinese eSSD market, with Intel, Samsung and Micron collectively accounting for more than 70% market share as of 2021. As China looks to ensuring independent and controllable data security, memory devices as direct carriers of data storage increasingly take a key role in realizing the country’s security strategies. Given the policy push and public cloud market development being driven by data operators, customers would look to Chinese eSSDs on localization and security considerations.
Toward mass production: Longsys became a certified eSSD and RDIMM supplier to key customers like Lenovo, JD Cloud and BiliBili as of end-2023 with signed orders for mass production and shipments. Mass production and mass shipments represent a milestone in the company’s core enterprise storage business, which we expect will add incremental profit growth. We view its bulk orders for enterprise storage from several customers in 2023 as a step forward to rapid growth in 2024E.
完善產業鏈佈局，成功收購元成蘇州和Zilia Brazil（原SMART Brazil），以打造高端封裝測試中心，實現本地與海外產業鏈兼顧，通過整合資源更好地提升技術實力、擴大市場份額。2023年10月1日，公司收購力成科技（蘇州）有限公司70%股權交易，已正式完成交割，並於2023年10月1日起納入江波龍合併報表範圍。本次交易完成後，元成蘇州將正式獨立運營，繼續承接現有客戶羣體的封測業務。此外，元成蘇州還將進一步加大在研發和封裝測試工藝上的投入力度，積極引進業內高端封裝測試設備和優秀人才，持續提升封裝測試能力，以打造高端封裝測試基地，更好地爲人工智能、高性能計算、智能汽車、智能手機、智能穿戴等多個領域行業客戶提供優質的服務。本次收購作爲江波龍加強生產製造端佈局的具體措施，公司將有望進一步提升存儲芯片封裝測試能力和產能利用率，完善產業鏈佈局，強化與存儲晶圓原廠的業務合作關係，在提升產品品質，快速響應客戶需求，靈活定製產品規格和提供穩定產能等多方面形成合力，提升公司市場影響力和核心競爭力，最終增強公司的長期盈利能力，實現公司半導體存儲品牌的戰略佈局。2023年11月，公司成功收購Zilia Brazil（原SMART Brazil）81%股權，聚焦主業拓展，發力巴西市場。SMART Brazil深耕存儲製造領域20年，收購後配合江波龍強大固件能力，有望進一步提升市場佔比。實現1）封測與固件能力強強聯合2）開拓巴西市場廣闊空間3）優化公司整體盈利水平。
Supply chain buildout: Longforce and Zilia Brazil acquisitions add premiumization
On the integration of Longforce and Zilia Brazil, Longsys is building high-end packaging and testing centers to strengthen both its Chinese and foreign supply chains, while combined resources boost tech prowess and expand market share.
Longforce: With the completion of the company’s acquisition of a 70% stake in Longforce Suzhou (formerly known as Power Technology (Suzhou)) and its integration into the Longsys consolidated statement from 1 Oct 2023, Longforce operates independently and takes on the packaging and testing business from current customer groups. Longforce also increased investments into R&D as well as packaging and testing to introduce high-end packaging and testing equipment and outstanding talents in the industry, and continue to improve packaging and testing capabilities to create a high-end packaging and testing base to better provide high-quality services to customers in multiple fields such as artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, smart cars, smartphones, and smart wearables. This acquisition is a specific measure for Longsys to strengthen its production and manufacturing end buildout. The company is expected to further improve its memory chip packaging and testing capabilities and production capacity utilization, improve the industrial chain buildout, strengthen business cooperation with memory wafer OBMs, improve product quality, respond quickly to customer needs, flexibly customize product specifications, and provide stable production capacity to enhance the company’s market influence and core competitiveness, ultimately enhancing the company’s long-term profitability and realizing the strategic buildout of the company’s semiconductor storage brand.
Zilia Brazil: Longsys acquired a 81% stake in Zilia Brazil (formerly Smart Brazil) in November 2023 to expand its core business into the Brazilian market with a leg up from Smart Brazil’s two-decade manufacturing footprint. Post-acquisition, Longsys expects synergy with its firmware capability to help expand market share. The company’s current focus is on these areas:
•synergy of packaging, testing and firmware capabilities
•penetration into the vast Brazilian market
•optimization of total profitability.
車規級存儲市場取得重大突破，公司具備服務全球汽車市場的資格和能力，看好智能汽車需求高增+公司車規級產品量產出貨帶來業績增量。2023年12月，江波龍成功獲得全球領先認證機構德國TÜV萊茵的IATF 16949:2016質量管理體系證書以及ISO 9001:2015質量體系認證證書。此前，公司車規級eMMC、UFS已通過汽車電子行業核心標準體系AEC-Q100認證，UFS2.1產品已在多個汽車客戶端完成產品驗證，根據客戶項目進展，預計將在2024年上半年開始量產出貨。同時，公司還完成了第二代車規級UFS產品的產品設計和驗證工作，並開始給策略汽車客戶送樣驗證，將進一步擴大公司的車規市場佔有率。公司已經通過與Tier1的深度合作，車規級存儲產品已經進入相關車企的供應鏈系統，廣泛應用在小鵬、比亞迪、上汽、廣汽等主流汽車品牌。並已形成自主可控的Flash固件開發技術，包括pSLC分區、智能溫控、AES256加密算法等車用存儲功能，可爲智能汽車應用賦予更多可能性。
Automotive storage: product upgrades in compliance with global certifications
We anticipate demand expansion for smart cars will lead to mass production and shipments of automotive products by 24H1E, which would add incremental growth. Longsys obtained a IATF 16949:2016 certificate for quality management and an ISO 9001:2015 quality system certificate in December 2023 from TÜV Rheinland, the world’s leading certification institution. Its automotive eMMC and Universal Flash Storage (UFS) products have already been certified AEC-Q100, the key standard in the automotive electronics industry, and its UFS2.1 products have been verified by auto clients. Judging from the progress of its customer projects, we expect mass production and shipments will likely start in 24H1E. In the meantime, Longsys has completed the design and verification of its second-generation automotive UFS product, and has started sending samples to strategic customers for verification, after which it could increase its automotive market share.
Major customers: its automotive storage products have entered the supply chains of tier 1 automakers via deep customer ties and are widely used in mainstream marques like XPeng, BYD, SAIC and GAC. The company is looking to harness its independent and controllable flash firmware development technologies, such as pseudo single-level cell (pSLC) partitioning, smart temperature control, AES256 encryption algorithms and other automotive storage functionalities that could increase smart car applications.
