【经济学人】对于通货紧缩已无力回天|2016年11月5日|总第724期

Commentatorssee several potential turning-points in today’s markets. The first is in government bonds . The ten-year American Treasury bond yield bottomedat 1.37% on July 7th and has since risen to 1.80%. The ten-year German bond yield reached a low of -0.18% on around the same date and has since edged back into positive territory , at 0.13%. British bond yields of the same maturity have shown an even sharper shift, rising from 0.61% to 1.17% thanks to worries about the economic impact of Brexit .

在如今的市场中，评论家们发现了几个潜在的转折点。第一个是政府债券。十年期的美国国债从7月7号的最低点1.37%上涨至1.80%。几乎在同一天，十年期的德国国债则下降至-0.18%，随后小幅回涨至正区间，为0.13%。由于对退出欧盟造成的经济影响有所担忧，英国债券表现出更为迅猛的转变，从0.61%上涨到1.17%。

• government bonds政府债券；政府公债

• Treasury bond：（美国财政部发行的5年期以上的）长期国库券

• positive territor：正区间

• Brexit：英国退欧

7月份中国增持美国国债26亿美元

These yields are still very low by historical standards. But there has been a revival of talk that the long downward march of bond yields (and upward march of bond prices) dating back to 1982 may at last have reached an end.

用历史的眼光看，目前的收益率仍旧处于比较低的水平。但是关于追溯至1982年的长期债券市场低迷（和长期上涨的债券价格）也许最终会结束的言论已经复现。

• Revival：复兴; 复活; 再生，再流行，再生效;

A second turning-point may already have occurred, earlier in the year. Risky assets seem to have recovered in unison , with emerging-market equities , speculative or “junk” bonds, commodities and American property funds all reversing their poor performances of 2015 (see chart). David Ranson of HCWE, a research firm, says the trigger for the turnaround was the rally in the price of gold, which suffered its latest low at the end of 2015 and has rebounded by 20% this year.

第二个转折点在今年早些时候可能已经出现了。风险资产似乎一致得到了恢复--新兴市场股票、投机或“垃圾”债券、大宗商品和美国房地产基金扭转他们的2015年的糟糕表现(见图表)。David Ranson，来自HCWE（一家研究公司），表示转变的导火索是黄金价格的上涨,而在2015年底遭遇了历史最低点之后，黄金价格今年已经反弹了20%。

• in unison一致地

• Equity: 股票

• Speculative：投机的;

• Reverse：相反

The start of 2016 was marked by nervousness about the Chinese economy, the speed of monetary tightening in America and the risks of deflation. But China’s economy has continued to grow and the Federal Reserve has yet to push up interest rates again after its first increase in December 2015 (it may raise rates again next month). Deflation fears seem to have receded a bit. Gavyn Davies of Fulcrum Asset Management says that the headline inflation rate in advanced economies has risen from zero at one stage last year to 0.5%, and may reach 1.5% next year.