每日外刊 | 0507-美国房地产市场再次出现泡沫

考研英语时事阅读 · 公众号 · 考研 · 2022-05-07 09:01

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The American property market is once again looking bubbly

美国房地产市场再次出现泡沫

Ivy Zelman knows a thing or two about the American housing market. She was rare among mainstream analysts in warning of trouble in 2005, a year before the bubble started to burst. In 2012, when many investors were reluctant to get back into property, she declared the sector had hit rock-bottom; prices have more than doubled since then. So it is worth paying attention to her latest pronouncements. “It’s euphoric right now,” she says. “There are definite signs of excess.”

艾薇·泽尔曼对美国房地产市场颇为熟悉。2005年，也就是美国房地产泡沫开始破裂的前一年，她是主流分析师中少有发出危机警告的人。2012年，当许多投资者不愿重返房地产市场时，她宣称该行业行情已经触底；自那之后，房价上涨了一倍多。因此，她最近发表的声明值得关注。泽尔曼还表示：“现在(房产市场)情绪高涨。明显存在反应过度的迹象。”

But Ms Zelman, who has gone from investment banks to running an analysis firm, also knows the current rally is different from past ones, which suggests the downside may be less severe. Start with the evidence of potential danger. Prices have surged in America since early in the pandemic, much as they have throughout the rich world. In recent months they have risen by nearly 20% year on year, eclipsing their heady pace before the global financial crisis of 2007-09.

但泽尔曼从投资银行跳槽到管理一家分析公司，她也知道目前房价上涨与以往不同，这表明可能不会像之前那样崩盘。从潜在危机的迹象说起。自疫情初期以来，美国的房价就一直飙升，就像所有发达国家一样。近几个月来，房价同比上涨了近20%，超过了2007-2009年全球金融危机前夕的大幅上涨。