正文
At a time when government debt is large and increasing rapidly, it seems to me dangerously negligent to assume that this time will be different from other times without first studying how other cases transpired. It would be like assuming that we will never have a civil war or world war again because they haven’t happened before in our lifetimes without studying the mechanics that brought them about in the past. (By the way, I believe that both the civil war and world war dynamics are also going on today.) As in my other books,[1] I will create a description of the archetypical dynamic and then look at how and why different cases transpired differently so that one can track current cases relative to the template and put into context what’s happening and what’s likely to happen. In that way, you will both see many cases of this happening and get a peek into the future. Comparing what is happening with that template leads me to believe that we are heading into one of those cases in which central governments and central banks will “go broke” in the ways that have happened hundreds of times before and have had big political and geopolitical consequences.
在政府债务庞大且快速增长的今天，如果不首先研究其他情况是如何发生的，就认为这次与以往不同，
在我看来是一种危险的疏忽。这就好比我们在没有研究过去发生内战或世界大战的机理之前，就认为在我们有生之年不会再发生内战或世界大战。(顺便说一句，我相信内战和世界大战的动力在今天也同样存在）。
就像我在其他书中一样，我将对原型动态进行描述，然后研究不同的案例是如何以及为什么会有不同的结果，这样人们就可以根据模板追踪当前的案例，并将正在发生的事情和可能发生的事情纳入背景之中。这样，你既能看到许多正在发生的案例，又能窥见未来。
将正在发生的事情与该模板进行比较，我相信我们正在进入中央政府和中央银行将 "破产 "的情况之一，这种情况以前已经发生过数百次，并造成了重大的政治和地缘政治后果。
This brings me to an important point. The Big Debt Cycle is just one of several interrelated forces that together make up what I call the overall Big Cycle. For example, 1) Big Debt Cycles influence and are affected by largely coinciding 2) big cycles of political and social harmony and conflict within countries that are both affected by and affect 3) big cycles of geopolitical harmony and conflict between countries. These cycles in turn are affected by both 4) big acts of nature, like droughts, floods, and pandemics and 5) developments of big new technologies. Combined, these five forces make up the overall Big Cycle of peace and prosperity and conflict and depression. Because these forces affect each other and practically everything, they must be thought of together. How these forces have worked and interacted and are working and interacting now is covered in much greater detail in my book and video titled Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order and to a lesser extent in Chapter 17 of this study, which is the concluding chapter. In this study, I will be mostly focusing on the Big Debt Cycle, though we will see many references to the ways in which the Big Debt Cycle interacts with the other forces to create the path that we are on.
这让我想到一个重要的问题。大债务周期只是几种相互关联的力量之一，它们共同构成了我所说的整体大周期。
例如，1）大债务周期影响各国内部的政治和社会和谐与冲突，并受其影响；2）各国内部的政治和社会和谐与冲突的大周期既受各国之间地缘政治和谐与冲突的大周期影响，又受其影响；3）各国之间地缘政治和谐与冲突的大周期。这些循环反过来又受到 4) 干旱、洪水和大流行病等大自然行为和 5) 大型新技术发展的影响。
这五种力量共同构成了和平与繁荣、冲突与萧条的大循环。由于这些力量相互影响，实际上影响着一切，因此必须把它们放在一起考虑。
在我的著作和视频《应对不断变化的世界秩序的原则》（Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order）中，以及在本研究报告的第 17 章（也就是最后一章）中，对这些力量过去是如何发挥作用和相互作用的，以及现在是如何发挥作用和相互作用的，都有更详细的介绍。
在本研究中，我将主要关注大债务循环，尽管我们会看到很多关于大债务循环与其他力量相互作用以创造我们现在所走道路的方式。
This study consists of four parts and 17 chapters. Part 1 describes the Big Debt Cycle, at first very simply, then in a more complete and mechanical way, and then with some equations that show the mechanics and help with making projections of what is likely to happen. Part 2 shows what has actually happened across 35 Big Debt Cycle cases, laying out in a detailed template the typical sequence of events that signifies how a cycle is transpiring and shows symptoms that can help identify how far the cycle has progressed. Part 3 reviews the most recent Big Debt Cycle, which started when the new monetary and world orders began in 1944 at the end of World War II and brings it up to the present. In that part, in addition to looking at the Big Debt Cycle and the overall Big Cycle with a focus on the US (because it has been the world’s major reserve currency country and the world’s leading power, thus making it the world’s leading shaper of what one might call the American world order since 1944), I also very briefly describe the Big Cycles of both China and Japan, showing them from the 1860s until now. This will give you a more complete picture of what has happened in the world since 1944 and provide two other Big Debt Cycle cases to look at. Finally, in Part 4, I will peek into the future, looking at what my calculations say about what is required for the US to manage its debt burden, and how the five big forces might unfold in the years ahead.
本研究报告由四个部分和 17 个章节组成。
第 1 部分描述了大债务周期，起初非常简单，然后以一种更完整、更机械的方式进行了描述，最后用一些方程式来显示其机械原理，并帮助预测可能发生的情况。
第 2 部分展示了 35 个大债务周期案例中实际发生的情况，以详细的模板列出了表明周期如何发展的典型事件序列，并显示了有助于识别周期发展程度的症状。
第 3 部分回顾了最近的大债务周期，它始于 1944 年第二次世界大战结束时新的货币和世界秩序开始之时，并将其延续至今。在这一部分中，除了以美国为重点（因为自 1944 年以来，美国一直是世界主要储备货币国和世界头号强国，因此它是世界上所谓的美国世界秩序的主要塑造者）来审视大债务周期和整体大周期之外，我还非常简要地描述了中国和日本的大周期，展示了它们从 19 世纪 60 年代至今的情况。
这将让您更全面地了解自 1944 年以来世界上发生了什么，并提供另外两个大债务周期案例供您参考。
最后，在第 4 部分中，我将展望未来，看看我的计算结果如何说明美国需要如何管理其债务负担，以及五大力量在未来几年可能会如何发展。
Because I recognize that there are different readers who have different levels of expertise and want to give different amounts of time to this and I want to help you get what you want out of this, I put the most important points in bold so you can read just the most essential stuff and optionally dive into the details that interest you. I put what I believe are timeless and universal principles in italics. If you are a professional or aspiring professional who is really into economics and markets, I recommend that you read the whole thing because I believe that it will give you a unique perspective that you will enjoy and will help you to be successful in your job. If you are not, I recommend that you just read what is in bold. Also, because I’d love to have a two-way conversation with you to try to get in sync about what’s true and what to do about it, I am working on a few new technologies for doing that, which I will tell you about later.
因为我认识到，不同的读者有不同的专业水平，他们想花在这上面的时间也不尽相同，而且我也想帮助你从这上面得到你想要的东西，所以我把最重要的内容用粗体字标出，这样你就可以只读最基本的内容，也可以选择深入阅读你感兴趣的细节。
我把我认为是永恒和普遍的原则用斜体标出。如果你是一位真正热爱经济和市场的专业人士或有抱负的专业人士，我建议你读完这本书，因为我相信它会给你带来独特的视角，让你乐在其中，并帮助你在工作中取得成功。如果你不是，我建议你只阅读粗体字部分。
另外，因为我很愿意与你进行双向交流，尝试就什么是真相以及如何应对达成共识，所以我正在开发一些新技术来做到这一点，稍后我会告诉你。
In the next chapter, I will describe the Big Debt Cycle in just seven pages. If you want to stop there, that’s perfectly fine.
在下一章中，我将用短短七页纸描述大债务循环。如果你想就此打住，也完全没问题。
I hope that you will find the study’s analysis helpful.
希望研究分析对您有所帮助。
Part 1: Overview of the Big Debt Cycle
第 1 部分：大债务周期概述
Chapter 1: The Big Debt Cycle in a Tiny Nutshell
第 1 章：小结大债务周期
My goal for this chapter is to convey in seven pages a very brief but complete description of the mechanics of a typical Big Debt Cycle.
本章的目标是用七页纸简短而完整地描述一个典型的大债务周期的机制。
How the Machine Works
机器如何工作
Credit is the primary vehicle for funding spending and it can easily be created.[2] Because one person’s spending is another’s earnings, when there is a lot of credit creation, people spend and earn more, most asset prices go up, and most everyone loves it. Paying back debt is much less enjoyable. As a result, central governments and central banks have a bias toward creating a lot of credit. Credit also creates debt that has to be paid back, which has the opposite effect—i.e., when debts have to be paid back, it creates less spending, lower incomes, and lower asset prices, which people don’t like. In other words, when someone (a borrower-debtor) borrows money (called principal) at a cost (an interest rate), the borrower-debtor can spend more money than they have in earnings and savings over the near term. But over the long term, this requires them to pay back (the principal + interest) and when they have to pay it back, it requires them to spend less money than they have. This dynamic is why the credit/spending/debt-paying-back dynamic is inherently cyclical.
因为一个人的支出就是另一个人的收入，所以当信贷大量产生时，人们的支出和收入都会增加，大多数资产价格都会上涨，大多数人都喜欢这样。还债就没那么令人愉快了。
因此，中央政府和中央银行倾向于创造大量信贷。信贷也会产生必须偿还的债务，这就产生了相反的效果--也就是说，当必须偿还债务时，就会减少支出、降低收入、降低资产价格，而这些都是人们不喜欢的。
换句话说，当某人（借款人-债务人）以一定的成本（利率）借入资金（称为本金）时，借款人-债务人在短期内可以花费比他们的收入和储蓄更多的钱。
但从长远来看，这需要他们偿还（本金+利息），而当他们必须偿还时，这就要求他们花的钱少于他们所拥有的钱。这种动态就是信贷/消费/还债动态具有内在周期性的原因。
The Short-Term Debt Cycle
短期债务周期
Everyone who has been around long enough to be affected by it several times should be well-acquainted with the short-term debt cycle. It starts with money and credit being provided readily when economic activity and inflation are lower than desired, and when interest rates are low relative to inflation rates and low in relation to the rates of return on other investments. Those conditions encourage borrowing to spend and invest, which causes asset prices, economic activity, and inflation to pick up until they are higher than desired, at which time money and credit are restrained, and interest rates become relatively high in relation to inflation rates and rates of return on other investments. This leads to less borrowing to spend and invest, which leads to lower asset prices, a slowing of economic activity, and lower inflation, which leads interest rates to come down, money and credit to become easier, and the cycle to begin again. These cycles have typically lasted about six years, give or take three years.
每一个经历过多次短期债务周期的人都应该对这种周期非常熟悉。首先，当经济活动和通胀率低于预期，利率相对于通胀率较低，相对于其他投资的回报率也较低时，货币和信贷就会被轻易提供。
这些条件鼓励借贷消费和投资，从而导致资产价格、经济活动和通胀率上升，直至高于预期水平，此时货币和信贷受到限制，利率相对于通胀率和其他投资回报率变得相对较高。
这导致用于消费和投资的借贷减少，从而导致资产价格下降、经济活动放缓和通货膨胀率降低，进而导致利率下降、货币和信贷更加宽松，循环再次开始。
这些周期通常持续六年左右，或多或少三年。
Short-Term Debt Cycles Add up to Big, Long-Term Debt Cycles
短期债务周期累积成长期大债务周期
What isn’t paid enough attention is the way in which these short-term debt cycles add up to big, long-term debt cycles. Because credit is a stimulant that creates a high, people want more of it, so there is a bias toward creating it. This leads debt to rise over time, which typically leads to most of the short-term cyclical highs and lows in debt to be higher than the ones before. These add up to create the long-term debt cycle, which ends when it becomes unsustainable. The capacity to take on more debt is different early in the Big Debt Cycle when debt burdens are lower and there is more potential for credit/debt to be able to fund highly profitable endeavors than it is later in the cycle when debt burdens are higher, and lenders have fewer productive options.
没有引起足够重视的是，这些短期债务周期是如何累积成巨大的长期债务周期的。
因为信贷是一种兴奋剂，能让人产生兴奋感，人们想要更多的信贷，所以就会偏向于创造信贷。这导致债务随着时间的推移而增加，通常会导致大部分短期周期性债务高点和低点都高于之前的高点和低点。
这些因素叠加在一起就形成了长期债务周期，当它变得不可持续时就会结束。在大债务周期的早期，债务负担较轻，信贷/债务有更大的潜力为高利润的事业提供资金，而在大债务周期的后期，债务负担较重，贷款人的生产性选择较少，这时，承担更多债务的能力就不同了。
In that early part, it is easy to borrow—even to borrow a lot—and pay it back. These early short-term cycles are primarily driven by the previously described availability and economics of borrowing and spending, and also a lingering cautiousness brought about by memories of the pain of the most recent time when money was tight.[3] Early in the Big Debt Cycle, when debts and total debt service are relatively low in relation to incomes and other assets, increases and decreases in credit, spending, debt, and debt service are primarily determined by the previously described incentives with less risk. But late in the Big Debt Cycle, when debts and debt service costs get high relative to income and the value of other assets that can be used to meet one’s debt service obligations, the risks of default are higher. Also, late in the Big Debt Cycle, when there are a lot of debt assets and liabilities relative to income, the balancing act of trying to keep interest rates high enough to satisfy lender-creditors without having them too high for borrower-debtors becomes more challenging. That’s because one person’s debts are another’s assets and both must be satisfied. So, while short-term debt cycles end because of the previously described economic considerations, long-term debt cycles end because the debt burdens are too great to be sustained. Said differently, because it is more enjoyable to borrow and spend, if one isn’t careful, debt and debt service can grow like a cancer, eating up one’s buying power and squeezing out other consumption. This is what makes the long-term Big Debt Cycle.
在早期，借钱--甚至借很多钱--还钱都很容易。在大债务周期的早期，当债务和还本付息总额相对于收入和其他资产而言较低时，信贷、支出、债务和还本付息的增加和减少主要由前面所述的风险较小的激励因素决定。
但在大债务周期的后期，当债务和还本付息成本相对于收入和其他可用于履行还本付息义务的资产价值较高时，违约风险就会较高。
此外，在大债务周期的后期，当债务资产和负债相对于收入而言较多时，既要努力保持足够高的利率以满足贷款人-债权人的要求，又要让利率对借款人-债务人来说过高，这种平衡行为变得更具挑战性。这是因为一个人的债务就是另一个人的资产，两者都必须得到满足。因此，虽然短期债务周期的结束是出于前面所述的经济考虑，但长期债务周期的结束则是因为债务负担过重，难以为继。
换句话说，由于借贷和消费更令人愉快，如果不小心，债务和还本付息就会像癌症一样发展，吞噬人们的购买力，挤压其他消费。这就是长期的大债务循环。
Throughout the millennia and across countries, what has driven the Big Debt Cycle and has created the big market and economic problems that go along with it is the creation of unsustainably large amounts of debt assets and debt liabilities relative to the amounts of money, goods, services, and investment assets in existence.
千百年来，在各个国家，推动大债务周期并造成与之相伴的巨大市场和经济问题的原因是，相对于现有的货币、商品、服务和投资资产的数量，创造了不可持续的巨额债务资产和债务负债。
Said more simply, a debt is a promise to deliver money. A debt crisis occurs when there have been more promises made than there is money to deliver on them. When that happens, the central bank is forced to choose between a) printing a lot of money and devaluing it or b) not printing a lot of money and having a big debt default crisis. In the end, they always print and devalue. Either way—via default or devaluation—the creation of too much debt eventually causes debt assets (e.g., bonds) to be worth less.
