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年代中期的两倍。面临政治风险的不仅有石油人，还有技术奇才和兜售名牌手包的销售人员，而他们所面临的风险也是包罗万象，从汇率的波动、报复性的监管，到种种限制将利润汇回家的措施以及对生产的干扰，甚至是制裁和国有化。
Yet none of the recent geopolitical turmoil has had much impact on firms or financial markets. There have been yelps of pain. Carlsberg, Adidas, Société Générale and others have had share-price falls or made write-offs due to Russia. Overall Russian losses by Western firms amount to $35 billion, based on announced write-offs and the value of a basket of ten companies most exposed to Russia. But that is a drop in themultinational ocean. An index of political risk calculated by Dun & Bradstreet, an analysis firm, is at its highest level since 1994 (partly as a result of the euro-zone crisis). But the VIX index, which measures the implied volatility of America's stockmarket, and is also known as the “fear gauge”, is near a 20-year low.
不过，最近的地缘政治动荡始终未对企业和金融市场造成太大的影响。痛苦的尖叫不绝于耳。嘉士伯、阿迪达斯和法国兴业银行等公司，或是股价一路下跌，或者是因俄罗斯而做了资产减记。根据公开的减记额以及对俄风险敞口最大的
10
家公司的一揽子市值计算，西方公司在俄罗斯的损失总额相当于
350
亿美元。但是，这些损失，对众多的跨国公司来说，只是九牛一毛。由邓白氏公司估算的政治风险指数，目前正位于
1994
年以来的最高点（部分是由欧元危机所造成的）。但是，衡量美国股票市场潜在波动性的
VIX
指数，也就是所谓的“恐慌指标”，正在
20
年来的低点附近徘徊。
One explanation is obvious: the places suffering conflict are politically important but economically small. The Middle East, north Africa, Russia and Ukraine together produce just 7% of world economic output. They are mere “flesh wounds”, says the head of a Wall Streetbank. Only 2% of the stock of foreign investment by American, Japanese and British firms is in these places. Many bosses are more worried by American lawyers than jihadis. Multinationals' central nervous systems—their financial operations and computer servers—are still typically based in the West, Singapore or Japan. In 1973, 1979 and 1990 the oil price transmitted unrest in the Middle East across the world, but the world's energy mix has shifted away from oil since then, and America has lots of shale gas. Loose monetary policy has also buoyed markets.
一个显而易见的解释是：那些正在遭受战乱之苦的地区，虽然政治意义重大，但其经济规模是小的。中东、北非、俄罗斯和乌克兰的总产出仅占全球的
7
％。华尔街某银行的一位高管说，在这些地区的损失只是“皮外伤”。美国、日本和英国的公司在这些地区的投资仅占它们对外投资总额的
2
％。许多大佬担心的并不是圣战分子，而是美国的律师。跨国公司的中枢神经系统——它们的金融运作和计算机服务器——仍旧部署在西方国家、新加坡或者日本。
1973
年、
1979
年和
1990
年，油价曾经三次将中东的动荡传导至全世界。不过，自那时起，世界的能源结构就已经不再以石油为主了。同时，美国还拥有大量的页岩气。宽松的货币政策亦在提振市场。
Companies have so far proved better than expected at absorbing risk. This has little to do with the advice of political pundits and a lot to do with common sense. One boss says there is no substitute for getting directors to visit operations. “You get a sense of what is going on. It's a lot better than sitting in a boardroom with nice charts and the latest 30-year-old analyst telling you what is happening in Africa.”
