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But today’s consumers are better primed to buy gadgets now than they were then; watch sales should be far higher.
The cost of the Apple Watch—which starts at $300—puts people off.
So does its dependence on a smartphone for most activities, such as providing directions.
The firm will sell a mere 8m watches in 2016, generating $4 billion in sales, thinks Toni Sacconaghi of Sanford C.Bernstein, a research firm.
One bright spot is Apple’s services business, which is expected to grow steadily.
As it sells more gadgets—over 1 billion devices are in use—it can also sell content and services, and gain revenue from music, its app store and more.
In the second quarter Apple had $6 billion in services revenues, more than for Macs or iPads.
What else could the firm come up with?
That Apple has been working on an electric car is one of the worst-kept secrets in the technology business.
Reported disagreements with German carmakers over control of users’ data may have halted a potential alliance.
Many also expected Apple to disrupt television.
But Apple TV, the firm’s alternative to a set-top box and subscription, sells most shows and films à la carte, which becomes expensive very quickly. Its appeal is limited.
The problem, says James McQuivey of Forrester, another research firm, is that it will be difficult for Apple to come up with another single product as central to daily routines as the iPhone.
