正文
Haipeng Yu,
Aiguo Dai,
Yun Wei
& Litai Kang
AffiliationsContributionsCorresponding author
期刊
Nature Climate Change
(2017)
doi:
10.1038/nclimate3275
Received 07 October 2016 Accepted 20 March 2017 Published online 24 April 2017
摘要
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels1, 2, 3. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2–1.3 °C) has been 20–40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8–1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2–4.0 °C (2.4–2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world’s population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C; therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.
链接
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3275.html?WT.feed_name=subjects_climate-sciences
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