正文
From my earliest Wall Street days, starting in 1959, Livermore was my hero. And as I began developing some expertise in price analysis and trading, he became my coach and mentor in absentia. Like many investors, I've been influenced by his tactics, strategy and market philosophy.
从1959年我开始在华尔街混饭吃开始,利弗莫尔就是我的英雄。我开始钻研价格分析和交易方法时,利弗莫尔就是我不曾谋面的教练和导师。跟很多投资者一样,他的战术、策略和市场哲学,对我影响很大。
“There is only one side of the market, and it is not the bull side or the bear side,” he wrote, “but the right side” (Edwin Lefevre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Greenville ers Press, 1923, republished 1985.)). That basic philosophy is indelibly etched in my mind, and I revert to it every time I read some lofty or tedious market analysis excessively focused on contentious argument rather than on practical market analysis and strategy.
“市场只有一个方向,不是多头,也不是空头,”他曾写过这么一句话,“而是做对的方向。”(《股票作手回忆录》是用笔名爱德温·李费佛写的,1923年出版,1985年重印。)这个基本哲学已经深深铭刻在我心底,难以抹灭。每次我看到有人长篇大论,言不及义,所谈过分集中在争议上,而不谈务实的市场分析和策略时,就会想到这句话。
Like most traders, I frequently face the decision of which positions to stick with and which to close out. And here, Livermore provides excellent, pinpoint counsel through a commentary describing his own mistakes. “I did precisely the wrong thing,” he wrote. “The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it. The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out. Of all the speculative blunders, there are few greater than trying to average a losing game. Always sell (close out) what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.” (Et tu, Livermore?)
跟大多数交易者一样,我也常常面临要保留哪个仓位,平掉哪个仓位的决定。这一方面,利弗莫尔有一段精辟入理的话,描述他自己所犯的错误,一针见血地给了我建议:“我竟然犯了这样的错误,棉花亏损了,而我还留在手里。小麦有利润,而我却把它平掉了。在所有的投机错误中,摊平亏损是很大的错误。有损失的,都要平掉,有利润的,都要留着。”(利弗莫尔,你也会犯错呀?)
However, Livermore’s most significant legacy to investors concerns an overall strategy regarding investment objectives. It is particularly relevant during these times when traders are becoming increasingly dependent on powerful microcomputers and associated software. Even relatively inexperienced traders are swinging in and out of sizable positions on the basis of tick-by-tick and on-line, short-term computerized chart presentations.
不过利弗莫尔留给投资者最重要的遗产,是包括投资目标在内的整套策略。现在交易者越来越仰赖强有力的电脑和相关软件。即使是没什么经验的交易者,也常根据不断跳动的电脑图形在短线进出,他们很少自己研究策略,其实利弗莫尔的看法更显得重要。
Pay heed to this piece of Livermore wisdom:
请注意体会利弗莫尔的智慧:
After spending many years on Wall Street, and after making and losing millions of dollars, I want to tell you this. It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight. It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and lots of early bears in bear markets. I have known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling when prices were at the very level which should have made the greatest profit. And, their experience invariably matched mine. That is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a market operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade, than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
在华尔街打滚多年,赚了几百万元,也亏过几百万元之后,我要告诉你这些。我能赚那么多钱,靠的不是我的想法,而是我的坐法。听得懂这句话吗?我一直坐得纹风不动。看对市场正确的一边,根本不算什么大本领。我们总是能看到多头市场里面,有很多人老早就做多,空头市场里,也有很多人老早就做空。我知道有很多人在恰到好处的时间做对了恰到好处的事情,他们开始买入和卖出的价位,正是最能赚钱的价位。但是他们的经验总是跟我一样,也就是说,他们根本没赚到钱。能够做对事情,而且能坐住的人才是高手。我觉得这是最难学的。但是市场交易者只有真正懂得这点,才能赚大钱。交易者懂得了怎么去交易,赚几百万元易如反掌,而且比他在不懂得交易时赚几百块钱还容易。