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14: Relevance of Temporary Price Fluctuations
Inaddition to the probability of permanent loss attached to an investment, there is also the possibility of interim price fluctuations that are unrelated tounderlying value.
Many investors consider price fluctuations to be a significant risk: if the price goes down, the investment is seen as risky regardless of the fundamentals.
十四:临时价格波动的相关性
投资一个股票有可能会给你造成永久性的损失,也有可能其股价会出现临时性的波动,这种波动和公司背后的潜在价值并无关系。
很多投资者把股价的波动看作巨大的风险:只要股价下跌,不管这家公司根基如何,他们都会觉得它岌岌可危。
But are temporary price fluctuations really a risk? Not in the way that permanent value impairments are and then only for certain investors in specific situations.
但价格的临时波动真的有风险吗?有,但这和那些会造成永久损失的投资不一样,而且这种风险只对特定情况里的某些投资者有效。
It is, of course, not always easy for investors to distinguish temporary price volatility, related to the short-term forces of supply and demand, from pricemovements related to business fundamentals. The reality may only become apparent after the fact.
当然,要去分辨短期的供求关系带来的价格波动和企业根基受损带来的价值变化,是很难的。事实只有在真正发生了之后才会变得明显。
While investors should obviously try to avoid over paying for investments or buying into businesses that subsequently decline in value due to deteriorating results,it is not possible to avoid random short-term market volatility. Indeed,investors should expect prices to fluctuate and should not invest in securities if they cannot tolerate some volatility.
显然,投资者可以避免买高了或者买入之后公司其价值就发生退化,但不可能不面对股价的短期波动。实际上,他们应该知道价格波动一定会存在,如果他们一丁点儿的波动都接受不了,那还是别炒股了。
If you are buying sound value at a discount, do short-term price fluctuations matter?In the long run they do not matter much; value will ultimately be reflected in the price of a security. Indeed, ironically, the long-term investment implicationof price fluctuations is in the opposite direction from the near-term market impact.
如果你真的以折扣价买到了一个有价值的股票,短期的价格波动有影响么?长期来看,没有太大影响,一个公司的价值最后总会在其股价上真实反映出来的。讽刺的是,长期来看股价会上升,这和短期市场对股价的走向影响正好相反。
For example, short-term price declines actually enhance the returns of long-terminvestors. There are, however, several eventualities in which near-term price fluctuations do matter to investors. Security holders who need to sell in a hurry are at the mercy of market prices. The trick of successful investors isto sell when they want to, not when they have to.
也就是说短期价格下滑其实增加了长期投资者们的收益。但在几个情况下,长期投资者也会对关注短期价格波动,比如,那些急于卖股票的人就要受市场价格摆布。成功投资者的一个诀窍就是,想卖的时候再卖,而不是被迫卖。
Near-termsecurity prices also matter to investors in a troubled company. If a business must raise additional capital in the near term to survive, investors in its securities may have their fate determined, at least in part, by the prevailing market price of the company's stock and bonds.
还有,如果他们买的那个公司真的有问题时,投资者们也应该关注其股价变动。如果一个公司近期必须要靠筹集更多资金存活,那它将出现的股价变动某种程度上也决定了那些投资了这个公司的股票或者债券的人的命运。
The third reason long-term-oriented investors are interested in short-term price fluctuations is that Mr. Market can create very attractive opportunities to buy and sell. If you hold cash, you are able to take advantage of such opportunities.If you are fully invested when the market declines, your portfolio will likely drop in value, depriving you of the benefits arising from the opportunity to buy in at lower levels. This creates an opportunity cost, the necessity to forego future opportunities that arise. If what you hold is illiquid orun marketable, the opportunity cost increases further; the illiquidity precludes your switching to better bargains.
第三种情况则是市场先生有时候(会通过股价波动来创造)非常诱人的买卖机会。(股价下跌时,)如果你手上有现金,你就可以在此类机会中获益。但如果市场下行的时候你所有钱都已经投了进去,你的投资组合价值很可能会下降,因为你失去了用较低价格买入优质股票的获益机会。这就是机会成本,就是说你不得不放弃了未来可能出现的好机会。如果你手上的股票流动性和市场性很差,那这个机会成本就更高。买入流动性不足的股票会使你错失更好的投资机会。
15: Reasonable & Consistent Returns >Spectacular& Volatile Returns
A corollary to the importance of compounding is that it is very difficult to recover from even one large loss, which could literally destroy all at once the beneficial effects ofmany years of investment success.
十五:合理持续的收益>惊人却不稳定的收益
看重复利的一个必然结果就是,只要损失惨重一次,就很难恢复。这能一下子毁掉一个人多年成功的投资成果。
In other words, an investor is more likely to do well by achieving consistently good returns with limited downside risk than by achieving volatile and sometimes even spectaculargains but with considerable risk of principal.
换句话说,对于一个投资者而言,在有限风险的情况下获取持续良好的回报比在风险相对较大的情况下获得不稳定且有时“波澜壮阔”的回报可能要更好一些。
An investor who earns16 percent annual returns over a decade, for example, will, perhaps surprisingly, end up with more money than an investor who earns 20 percent ayear for nine years and then loses 15 percent the tenth year.
比如,一个在过去十年保持年收益率为16%的投资者和一个前九年每年都赚20%然后最后一年损失掉15%的投资者相比,前者可能最后赚的钱要更多。
16: Prepare for the Worst
Investors’ intent on avoiding loss must position themselves to survive and even prosper under any circumstances.
Bad luck can be fall you; mistakes happen.
十六:为最坏的情况做打算
避免亏钱的原则会使投资者在任何情况都生存下来甚至壮大。
但坏运气总会到来,人不可能永不犯错。
But the prudent, far sighted investor manages his or her portfolio with the knowledge that financial catas trophes can and do occur. Investors must be willing to forego some near-term return, if necessary, as an insurance premium against unexpected and unpredictable adversity.
精明、有远见的投资者相信金融灾难总会到来,并以此为前提管理自己的组合。逆境无法被预测,所以必要的时候,一定要放弃一些短期的回报,当作应对逆境缴纳上的保险。
17: Focus on Process, Not the Outcome
Many investors mistakenly establish an investment goal of achieving a specific rate of return.Setting a goal, unfortunately, does not make that return achievable. Indeed, no matter what the goal, it may be out of reach.
十七:注重过程,而非结果
许多投资者给自己设定了一个具体的回报率目标,这是错误的。不幸的是,定了目标不代表就一定会实现。也就是说,不管你定了什么目标,最后都有可能不达标。
If you look to Mr.Market as a creator of investment opportunities (where price departs fromunderlying value), you have the makings of a value investor.
如果你将市场先生看作投资机会的创造者,会为你创造那些价格和公司价值不符的投资机会,那你就有了成为价值投资者的先决条件。