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In response, London, like other heaving parts of the world, is looking at a more radical approach to reduce congestion. In January the London Assembly, the elected body that oversees the mayor, published a report calling for the city to develop a system of road-pricing that varies by when, how much and where drivers use the roads. Singapore, which already has the world’s most comprehensive road-pricing system, is introducing a new one in 2020 that uses cars’ global positioning systems (GPS) to charge motorists more precisely. Other schemes are being tried out in American states such as California and Oregon.
All of which pleases economists. Using prices to ration a scarce resource, such as space on busy roads at busy times, makes sense. Those who consume a good should pay for it. Road-pricing is also more efficient than the typical ways drivers are charged for imposing costs on others: taxes on fuel and on car ownership. Neither penalises driving in congested conditions, which causes extra pollution and crimps productivity by delaying workers and deliveries, and disrupting supply chains. And although congestion zones help, they are blunt instruments; ideally, road pricing would adjust to traffic flows in real time.
Yet economists are not normal people. Most voters hate taxes on driving. Even if they grudgingly accept existing ones, they squeal about any increases. In Britain, which Margaret Thatcher called a “great car-owning democracy”, duties on fuel have been frozen since 2011 following pressure from drivers’ groups. Nineteen American states have not raised their “gas taxes” in at least a decade; Oklahoma’s levy has been frozen for 30 years.
The not-so-fast and the furious
Many drivers would rather “pay” by queuing than through road-pricing. The Netherlands hoped to run a 60,000-vehicle trial of road-pricing in 2011, on the way to a nationwide scheme. But opposition politicians and motoring organisations fought so hard that the plans were dropped.
Governments will nevertheless soon have to find new ways of making drivers pay. That is not because congestion will worsen otherwise—though it will. Rather, tax revenue from motoring is drying up.
One reason for this is the spread of ride-hailing and ride-sharing. In London drivers for firms like Uber can circulate all day inside the CCZ, picking up fares, while being exempt from the charge. The number of private-hire vehicles that entered the zone at least once rose from 50,000 in March 2013 to 85,000 in November 2016. The number of licensed drivers rose from 67,000 to 115,500 over the same period. (In the future self-driving cars may replace these workers, further depleting government coffers, since there will be fewer car owners to tax.) In total private-hire vehicles make up 38% of car traffic in central London, almost double the share of traditional black taxis.
