主要观点总结
本文介绍了投资者在追逐收益的同时，需要关注股票投资中的汇率风险问题。文章详细阐述了近期投资者对于对冲工具的需求变得更加迫切，以及一些常见对冲工具的实际运用及其复杂性。此外，本文还介绍了部分企业的外汇风险及如何应对，强调了深入分析企业财务报告的重要性。
关键观点总结
关键观点1: 投资者面临新的重大问题：汇率风险
随着全球金融市场的发展，投资者在追逐收益的同时，必须关注汇率风险。文章指出，这是一个新的挑战，因为预测企业盈利已经是一项艰巨的任务，而在货币多元化的背景下，预测每种货币的汇率走势更是难上加难。
关键观点2: 外汇风险的复杂性上升
文章阐述了外汇风险的复杂性。对于股权投资者来说，预测股票的汇率风险是一大难题。这是因为许多因素都会影响汇率的走势，包括全球经济状况、政治事件、利率差异等。
关键观点3: 对冲工具的实际运用及其局限性
文章介绍了投资者如何尝试使用各种对冲工具来应对汇率风险，包括远期合约和期权等。然而，这些工具在实际运用中都有其局限性，效果并不理想。
关键观点4: 深入分析企业财务报告的重要性
文章强调了深入分析企业财务报告的重要性。只有深入研究企业的财务报表，投资者才能更准确地评估股票的汇率风险。
正文
Finance & economics | Buttonwood
财经版块 | 梧桐树专栏
Shareholders face a big new problem: currency risk
股东们面临一个新的重大问题：汇率风险
Analysing it is more important than ever. Mitigating it is a nightmare
分析汇率风险比以往任何时候都更重要，
风险对冲举步维艰
Imagine someone who found secondary-school maths difficult being grilled about logarithms. That is how a lot of equity investors look if you ask them about currency risk. It is not because the question is novel: any client can spot that the share price of an overseas company, or one doing business across borders, ought to depend on foreign-exchange (FX) rates. It is because it is easy to pose, but maddeningly hard to answer. Forecasting earnings is already a pain. It becomes much worse when the task is to make forecasts for each company in a portfolio, before splitting costs and revenues by perhaps a dozen currencies, and then netting it all off against hedging arrangements made years ago by a now-retired treasurer. Unsurprisingly, such analysis is often dumped in the “too hard” bucket.
试想一个连中学数学都觉得吃力的人被逼问对数问题时的窘态
——
这正是你向许多股权投资者问及
“
汇率风险
”
时，他们的典型反应。这并
非
因为这个问题
有多
新颖：任何
投资者
都
明白
，一家海外公司或跨国企业，其股价理应受到外汇
（
FX
）
汇率的影响。
其
真正的难点在于，这个问题虽看似简单，却
很难
回答
，
让人抓狂。预测企业盈利本就不是轻松差事，更别说还要为投资组合中的每一家公司进行预测，细分成本与收入所涉及的十多种货币，然后再与数年前、由某位早已退休的财务主管所设立的对冲安排进行净额核算。
这也就不难理解，为什么
类似的分析常常被
丢
进
“
太难
”
这类抽屉里
吃灰了
。
注释：
Logarithms:[
数
]
对数
n.the exponent that indicates the power to which a base number is raised to produce a given number
Source:
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/logarithms
Time to fish it back out
. In recent weeks it has become unusually urgent for investors to work out how unexpected changes in FX rates might affect th
eir portfolios, not least because several such jumps have already taken place. Along with Europe’s planned defence spending, the euro has soared against a basket of its peers. The Bank of Japan’s newfound hawkishness has made the bull case for the yen more convincing than it has been in years. Jitters over the future of the dollar’s global role, meanwhile, have eroded its value—with falls often coming as American share prices have also dropped. This has broken a longstanding hedging relationship for international investors, who used to see the dollar strengthen when trouble was afoot, offsetting losses from stocks.
现在是时候
要迎难而上了
。近几周，投资者迫切
需要
评估
清楚外汇汇率的意外波动
对
投资组合
的影响
，
