正文
The other three recessions were each caused by derangements in financial markets. After the savings-and-loan crisis of 1991-1992 came the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000-2002, followed by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in 2007, which triggered the global financial crisis the following year.
截至2019年1月初，通胀预期似乎被牢牢地锚定在每年2%的水平上，反映失业和通胀之间关系的菲利普斯曲线仍异乎寻常地趋平。生产和就业过剩、潜在产出不足、抑或是自然率趋势都未对价格和薪资产生重大影响。
As of early January 2019, inflation expectations appear to be well anchored at 2% per year, and the Phillips curve – reflecting the relationship between unemployment and inflation – remains unusually flat. Production and employment excesses or deficiencies from potential-output or natural-rate trends have not had a significant effect on prices and wages.
与此同时，安全资产的短期和长期利率之差—通过所谓的收益率曲线来反映—目前异常的窄，短期名义利率异常低。作为一般经验法则，收益率曲线倒挂—即长期债券的收益率低于短期债券的收益率--被视为预示经济衰退将至的强有力指标。此外，在近期股市动荡之后，基于John Campbell和Robert J. Shiller 的周期调整市盈率（CAPE）的预测显示，长期实际（经通胀调整的）买入并持有的股票回报约为每年4％，仍高于过去四十年的平均水平。
At the same time, the gap between short and long-term interest rates on safe assets, represented by the so-called yield curve, is unusually small, and short-term nominal interest rates are unusually low. As a general rule of thumb, an inverted yield curve – when the yields on long-term bonds are lower than those on short-term bonds – is considered a strong predictor of a recession. Moreover, after the recent stock-market turmoil, forecasts based on John Campbell and Robert J. Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio put long-run real (inflation-adjusted) buy-and-hold stock returns at around 4% per year, which is still higher than the average over the past four decades.
