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Such confidence has long been rewarded. Property prices in cities have roughly quadrupled this century, a rate of growth far exceeding that of the American housing bubble of the early 2000s, albeit from a lower base. This has led to a series of concerns: that homes are increasingly unaffordable, that the economy is too reliant on property and that housing prices, having gone up and up, might someday crash.
The government has, until now, tried to reduce the risk by periodically applying brakes on the market. Whenever real estate overheats, the authorities restrict funding to developers and make it difficult for people to buy new homes—for example, by increasing mandatory down-payments. When prices stabilise, they relax the controls. But such measures create volatility. Every three years or so, prices surge again.
So officials have started talking about a “long-term mechanism” to calm the housing market. Several times during the past year China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has said that “homes are for living in, not for speculating on.” The government appears to be adopting three main approaches. Together these could reshape the architecture of China’s housing market.
The most promising is a push to develop a market for good-quality rental housing. Only about a fifth of urbanites rent homes in China, compared with a third in the rich world. In some countries, such as France and Germany, the proportion of renters is much higher still. China’s rental housing is often shabby because it is aimed at low-income households. Rosealea Yao of Gavekal Dragonomics, a research firm, estimates that only around half of rental units in Beijing, the capital, and Shanghai have their own kitchens and bathrooms.
