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【双语】沈建光：人民币国际化再出发的时机来临

首席经济学家论坛 · 公众号 · 财经 · 2017-06-05 22:08

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对于近一段时间人民币汇率与外汇储备的齐升，有以下两方面的原因。首先是与外部环境变化导致美元触顶回落密切相关。欧元区政治经济转好，法国大选未再次上演黑天鹅事件以及特朗普新政不及预期，导致美元升值态势逆转。预计今年美元或将出现拐点，可缓解人民币贬值与资本外流压力。其次，也得益于中国经济企稳、货币政策收紧以及前期资本管理政策的实施。今年年初以来，为缓解人民币贬值压力，央行采取了包括加大直接参与外汇买卖的力度、提高离岸市场做空人民币的成本，以及加强跨境资金流动管理等诸多稳定汇率的措施。

The renminbi's exchange rate and the nation's foreign exchange reserves have been rising in tandem recently. There are a number of reasons for this. First, the external environment has changed, with the dollar hitting a peak and then falling back. The eurozone has also seen improvements in its economic and political environment, including the solid victory in the French presidential election for the pro-European Union candidate Emmanuel Macron. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has so far been unable to deliver much in his "Make America Great Again" agenda, and that has taken some of the buoyancy out of the dollar. It is likely that that the dollar will reach a turning point this year, and that will ease the downward pressure on the renminbi and reduce capital outflows. The renminbi has also benefited from the stabilizing of China's economy as well as a tighter monetary policy and the implementation of fresh capital management measures. Since the beginning of this year, in order to reduce the downward pressure on the renminbi, the central bank has stepped up intervention in the foreign exchange market, increased the cost of shorting the renminbi in the offshore market and tightened the management rules for cross-border capital flows.

对此，曾有部分观点质疑，中国正在重拾部分资本管制，并认为这是人民币国际化与改革的倒退，会重挫投资者的信心。中国央行副行长、外汇局局长潘功胜在今年 3 月底的中国发展高层论坛上就此做出了回应。他指出，去年 ODI 增速井喷 40% ，比往年增幅提高了 20%—30% ，其中不乏非理性和异常的投资行为，有的是借对外直接投资之名行转移资产之实。

This has raised concerns among some observers that China may be turning the clock back to the days of strict capital controls. That would be a setback in the program to internationalize the renminbi and reform the currency regime. It would also damage investor confidence. Pan Gongsheng, vice governor of the People's Bank of China and administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, addressed these concerns at a key business meeting, the China Development Forum, in late March. He pointed out that overseas direct investment surged 40% last year, well above the levels of previous years. Many of these investments were irrational and in some cases were merely asset transfers in the name of foreign direct investment.