正文
This week, the Chinese government ordered North Korean companies operating in China to shut down, the latest sign of rising tensions between the two longtime allies. Those tensions could soon get even worse if, as many observers anticipate, North Korea carries out some provocative action—another nuclear test or missile launch perhaps—during the 19th congress of the ruling Communist Party in Beijing next month.
本周，中国政府勒令在华的朝鲜企业关闭，两个长期盟国间的局势愈发紧张。许多时事观察员预测，如果朝鲜在下个月于北京召开的共产党第十九次全国代表大会期间采取某种挑衅行为，例如再一次进行核试验或是导弹试射，那么两国间局势还会进一步急剧恶化。
There’s a widely held view in the United States that Chinese pressure has been the key missing factor preventing the resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis. “China could easily solve this problem!” as President Trump has put it. The case is undoubtedly overstated, but it’s not totally wrong. China does have a decades-old defense treaty with its Cold War ally and serves as its economic lifeline, accounting for 90 percent of the isolated country’s trade. While China is certainly worried about North Korea’s nuclear program, it’s even more worried about what could happen if the North Korean regime collapsed, bringing a massive humanitarian crisis and possibly U.S. troops right up to its border. At this point, it’s probably too late for even China to persuade Kim Jong-un to give up his nuclear program, but it’s undoubtedly true that for years, China has been reluctant to put too much pressure on Pyongyang.
在许多美国人眼中，之所以朝鲜核危机未能解决，关键是因为缺了中国对朝鲜的施压。就像特朗普总统说的那样：“中国可以轻易解决这个问题！”这种观点无疑有夸大成分，但并非全无道理。中国和朝鲜这个冷战盟国有数十年历史的互卫条约，同时也担当着它的经济生命线，占有这个孤立国家90%的贸易量。虽然中国对朝鲜的核项目无疑是感到忧虑的，但它更担心的是朝鲜政权垮台，造成大规模人道危机，美军也可能兵临国境的后果。事到如今，就连中国自己想要说服金正恩放弃他的核项目，都恐怕已经为时太晚，但多年来中国始终不愿对平壤施加过大压力，这也是不争的事实。
In Beijing, however, the notion that the North Korea crisis is China’s fault seems bizarre. There, the prevailing narrative is that it’s American recklessness, not Chinese reluctance, that turned North Korea into a nuclear threat.
然而在北京的人们眼中，把朝鲜危机归罪于中国是一种异想天开的观点。在那边的主流论调中，使朝鲜化身核威胁的不是中国的踌躇不前，而是美国的鲁莽冒进。
At a meeting with a group of American journalists, including myself, in Beijing last week, Counselor Yu Dunhai of the Chinese Foreign Ministry dismissed the idea that China could resolve the crisis. “The key is not in our hands,” he said. “China certainly can play a big role, because we are the closest neighbor and have a lot of influence, but only China can’t solve the problem. The key lies with the U.S. If the two sides [the United States and North Korea] do not talk, China can do nothing.”
上周在北京，中国外交部参赞于敦海会见了包括我本人在内的一批美国记者，驳斥了中国能够解决（朝核）危机的观点。他说：“钥匙不在我们手中。中国当然可以扮演很大角色，我们毕竟是（朝鲜）最密切的盟友，对他们有很大影响力，但只靠中国是解决不了问题的。钥匙在美国手中。如果（美朝）双方不交谈，中国就无能为力。”
Yu suggested that North Korea has developed nuclear weapons because it “feels very insecure. They think a nuclear bomb is the solution.” That insecurity, he argues, results from the heavy U.S. troop presence in South Korea and U.S.-led military exercises in the region.
于提出，朝鲜之所以发展核武器，是因为它“很没有安全感。他们觉得核弹可以解决这个问题。”他认为，这种不安全感来自于驻韩的大量美军，以及美国在那里主导的军事演习。
In Yu’s view, “we almost achieved the denuclearization of the peninsula during President Clinton’s administration,” but progress was derailed when George W. Bush labeled North Korea a member of the “axis of evil” and invaded fellow axis member Iraq, convincing Pyongyang of the necessity of developing a nuclear deterrent. He also put some blame on the Obama administration for its lack of engagement with the problem. “During Obama’s administration, they used the term ‘strategic patience,’ and North Korea’s nuclear program developed very fast during that time,” he said.
于认为，“克林顿总统执政期间，我们几乎已经达成了半岛的去核化，”然而乔治·W·布什上任后将朝鲜列为“邪恶轴心”成员国之一，并入侵了同为邪恶轴心成员国的伊拉克，使平壤确信了发展核威慑的必要性，导致去核进程搁浅。此外，他也将问题部分归罪于奥巴马政府的不作为。他表示：“奥巴马执政期间，他们弄出了‘战略忍耐’这个说法，结果那段时间朝鲜的核项目发展非常快速。”
“China feels very frustrated,” says Tong Zhao, a nuclear policy analyst at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing. Tong suggests that Chinese leaders believe “the crisis is getting worse because the U.S. won’t listen to us. U.S. provocations only make North Korea more paranoid.”
北京卡内基-清华全球政策中心的核问题政策分析家赵通表示：“中国对此很恼火。”通（
冬天毛注：此处应为“赵”
