正文
Once these people are in place, the same appointment approach will likely be used to purge the government of those accused of being part of the “deep state,” who are not aligned with and loyal to the mission. This will extend to all parts of the government system including those that were previously thought to be less politically/ideologically controlled, such as the military, the Department of Justice, the FBI, the SEC, the Federal Reserve, the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of the Interior, and “Schedule F” government employees (a job classification that President-elect Trump wants to reintroduce to reclassify certain government jobs to remove civil service protections). Most all appointed positions that the president (in conjunction with the Republican-controlled Senate, House, and the Department of Justice) can control will be controlled, to have people aligned with President Trump and his new domestic order in place. In the process of doing this, most everyone in and out of government will be viewed as either an ally or an enemy, and all powers at the disposal of Donald Trump and allies will be used to beat the enemies who are standing in the way of their reforms. I think they will almost certainly have a big impact on changing the domestic and world orders. What will they look like?
一旦这些人到位,
同样的任命方式很可能会被用于清除政府中那些被指控为 "深层国家 "一部分的人
,这些人并不支持和忠诚于使命。这将扩展到政府系统的所有部门,包括那些以前被认为政治/意识形态控制较少的部门,如军队、司法部、联邦调查局、证交会、美联储、食品药品管理局、疾病控制和预防中心、国土安全部、内政部,以及
"F 级 "政府雇员(当选总统特朗普希望重新引入的一种职位分类,对某些政府职位进行重新分类,以取消公务员保护)
。总统(连同共和党控制的参议院、众议院和司法部)可以控制的大多数任命职位都将受到控制,以便让与特朗普总统及其国内新秩序一致的人就职。
在此过程中,政府内外的大多数人都将被视为盟友或敌人,唐纳德-特朗普和盟友所掌握的一切权力都将被用来击败阻碍其改革的敌人。我认为,他们几乎肯定会对改变国内和世界秩序产生重大影响。他们会是什么样子呢?
The Changing Domestic Order
不断变化的家庭秩序
It is now clear that Donald Trump and those he is choosing will reform government and the country like a corporate raider engaging in a hostile takeover of an inefficient company, making huge reforms to it by changing the people, slashing costs, and infusing it with new technologies. Think of Gordon Gekko and the perspective he conveyed in his “greed is good” speech, while recognizing that this is coming from the president of the United States, who is going to take that approach to the central government and the entire country. As mentioned, the most recent analogous historical cases were the hard-rightist states in the 1930s. To be clear, I am not saying that Trump and those in his government are fascist or will behave as fascist leaders did in many respects; what I am saying is that, in order to understand those who are now taking control with nationalistic, protectionist, top-down, government-led economic and social policies, and who have little tolerance for internal opposition and are embroiled in international great powers conflicts, it is worth understanding how those states with analogous policies in the 1930s behaved.
现在很清楚,唐纳德-特朗普和他所选择的人将对政府和国家进行改革,就像一个企业掠夺者对一家效率低下的公司进行恶意收购一样,通过改变人员、削减成本和注入新技术对其进行巨大改革。想想戈登-盖科(Gordon Gekko)和他在 "贪婪是好的 "演讲中传达的观点,同时认识到这是出自美国总统之口,他将对中央政府和整个国家采取这种做法。
如前所述,最近的类似历史案例是 20 世纪 30 年代的强硬右派国家。
明确地说,我并不是说特朗普及其政府中的那些人是法西斯主义者,或者在许多方面会表现得像法西斯领导人那样;我要说的是,为了理解那些现在正以民族主义、保护主义、自上而下、政府主导的经济和社会政策掌控政权,而且几乎不容忍内部反对派并卷入国际大国冲突的人,我们值得了解那些在 20 世纪 30 年代采取类似政策的国家是如何表现的。
The economic renovation of the country will, in all likelihood, come via industrial policies that are designed to improve productivity and efficiency without much worry given to the people or issues— such as taking care of the environment, addressing climate change, remediating poverty, or encouraging diversity, equity, and inclusion—that could stand in the way of these things happening. Certain key areas (including the areas that I think are most important, which are education and debt management) will likely be neglected (and would have also been neglected by the Democrats). For as long as the Trump-Musk partnership lasts, they will be the main designers and implementers of this new domestic order.
国家的经济革新很可能会通过旨在提高生产力和效率的产业政策来实现,而不会过多地考虑到人或问题
,如保护环境、应对气候变化、解决贫困问题,或鼓励多样性、公平性和包容性,而这些问题可能会阻碍这些事情的实现。某些关键领域(包括我认为最重要的领域,即教育和债务管理)很可能会被忽视(民主党也会忽视这些领域)。只要特朗普与马斯克的合作关系持续下去,他们就将是这一国内新秩序的主要设计者和执行者。
These policies may well be great for Wall Street and some tech and most businesses that are plagued by regulations and worried about increased taxes. While these entities have been previously restrained in many ways from doing deals, they will be much freer from government constraints. These changes will be great for financial deal makers, banks, and asset managers because they will have more freedom and more money and credit, because capital controls will be eased and the Fed will be pressured to make money easier. These policies will be great for pro-Trump tech companies because they will be allowed to grow and operate in largely unrestrained ways. These policies will also be good for lawyers, who will be busy too. I am already seeing big changes in these people’s plans to do much more under the Trump Administration than they could have done under a Democratic government. Also, AI won’t be as regulated, and tariffs will be used to simultaneously raise tax money and protect domestic producers. If the Fed continues in its path to cut interest rates (which I don’t think it should do), that will also shift a lot of cash that is saved in money market funds and other deposits into other markets, which will be stimulative to markets and the economy.