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剑桥博士发震撼长文:为何中国肯下血本在西方绝不做的“亏本买卖”上

千人智库  · 公众号  ·  · 2019-06-08 08:30

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在“十三五”规划(2016-2020)中,中央政府投入了大量资金建设高速公路、铁路,穿越这万恶的山丘。

For the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020), the central government has poured a huge amount of money in building expressways and railways across these god damn hills.


重点是,修什么样的路,架什么等级的桥。


更重要的是,政府并不是建造单满足于人们通行的“5级”桥梁。相反,他们正在建造的是“50级”闪亮的巨型桥梁。

And what's more, they are not building "Level 5" bridges just enough for people to move. Instead, they are building "Level 50" shiny and massive bridges.


“5级”桥梁和“50级”桥梁分别意味着什么?


下图是法国的一座“5级”桥梁,长度和高度都很有限。你必须俯冲,过桥还要爬上山。

Here is an example of a "Level 5" bridge in France. Short in length and height. You have to rush down, cross the bridge and climb up the mountains.



这是甘肃“50级”桥梁的一个例子。您所需要做的就是以120km/h的速度驶过。

Here is an example of a "Level 50" bridge in Gansu. All you need to do is to pass through at the speed of 120km/h.





甘肃天宁沟特大桥


要建造这些“50级”的桥梁确实非常昂贵。但另一方面,如果考虑卡车、火车和汽车节省的燃料量,它们的成本效益则非常高!因为你不必一而再再而三地上上下下。

These "Level 50" bridges are indeed very expensive to build. But, on the other hand, they are very cost effective if you consider the amount of fuel saved for trucks, trains, and cars! You don't have to go down and up again and again.

即使沿着山谷已经有一条“5级”公路,政府仍不满足于此。他们想在这些公路旁边再建“50级”高速公路。

Even if there is already a "Level 5" road along the valleys, the government is still not satisfied. They want to build another high-speed "Level 50" expressway along with it.



甘肃正在建设中的省级高速公路S2


2019年,甘肃省“50级”高速公路总长度超过4242公里(限速120公里/小时),甚至超过墨西哥。

In 2019, the total "Level 50" expressway length in Gansu has exceeded 4242km (speed limit 120km/h), which is even longer than Mexico.


它几乎是印度“50级”高速公路总长度的三倍。

And it is almost three times longer than India's total length.

不仅仅是高速公路,甘肃还有4条时速在250km到350km的高速铁路——宝兰、成兰、兰新、兰渝。
Not only expressways, but Gansu also has four lines of high-speed railways running at 250km/h to 350km/h (宝兰,成兰,兰新,兰渝).


在接下来的“十四五规划”(2021-2025)中,中国政府承诺要让甘肃省每一个地级市都通上高速公路和高速铁路。

In the next 14th Five Year Plan (2021–2025), the government will promise to connect every prefecture city in Gansu with high-speed railways and expressways.


想象一下,你若是之前我们提及的甘肃山区百姓,你的生活水平是不是会随着道路建设的完善得以提高?


为了方便国外小伙伴理解,Janus Dongye对比中美的情况,举了一个更现实易懂的例子。


嗯,这是另一个现实生活中的例子。想象一下,你住在甘肃一个偏远的村庄,想从淘宝(类似于中国版的亚马逊)购买一部手机。2019年从深圳到敦煌,运送一个1公斤的包裹需要多少钱?注意总距离约为3500km。

Well, here is another real-life example. Imagine you live in a distant village in Gansu and you want to buy a mobile phone from Taobao (Chinese Amazon), what does it cost to ship a package of 1kg from Shenzhen to Dunhuang in Gansu in 2019? Note that the total distance is around 3500km.


超过3500公里的运输总成本为15元人民币(2.2美元),并承诺在3天内到达。

The total cost for shipping over the 3500km is 15RMB ($2.2) and it is promised to arrive in three days.


同样的距离、同样重量的物品、同样耗时、同样的情况,美国UPS三日服务的运输成本是26.13美元。

For comparison, the total cost for shipping a 1kg package from Boston to Reno in Nevada (a similar 4000km) in the US is $26.13 according to the UPS shipping price calculator under the UPS' three-day service.


因此,在美国,它需要10倍的钱来做同样的事情!但是在计算GDP的时候,这些成本都是算在内的。26.13美元得出来的GDP当然比2.2美元得出来的高。

Therefore in the US, it requires 10x more money to do the same thing! And note that they are both counted in the GDP calculation in both countries. Is it fair? Of course not.


这意味着甘肃并非我们原本想象的那么“贫穷”。
That means Gansu is not as "poor" as we originally thought.


甘肃也拥有丰富的“绿色”自然资源——风力!政府为此做了什么?


03

因地制宜


一面有寒冷的青藏高原。另一面,则是酷热的戈壁沙漠。温差意味着持续的风力。

On one side, you have the cold the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. On the other side, you have the hot Gobi desert. Boom! The temperature difference means wind constantly blows.


因此,甘肃是可再生能源领域的领导者。它拥有世界上最大的陆上风力发电厂。

Therefore, Gansu is the leader in its renewable energy sector. It has the world's largest on-shore wind farm.


甘肃酒泉风电基地


甘肃也有很多陆上太阳能发电场。我虽然不确定它是否是世界上最大的。但是你可以从谷歌地图上看到它们,几乎每个地方都有。

There are many on-shore solar farms in Gansu as well. I am not sure if it is the world's largest. But you can spot them everywhere on Google Earth.



甘肃敦煌太阳能光热发电项目


以上就是中国政府对甘肃这个中国最穷的省进行的投资和发展。2018年,甘肃的GDP增速高达10.54%。与其他省份相比,这还远远不够,甘肃依然还有很多偏远村庄没有像样的公路和桥梁。未来中国政府会继续为脱贫做些什么,我们拭目以待。

In summary, these conclude the development in the poorest province of China — Gansu. The GDP growth for Gansu province in 2018 is 10.54 percent. And it is still far from enough compared to other provinces because we still have a lot of distant villages in Gansu that are not yet covered by decent roads and bridges. We will wait and see how China continues to eliminate poverty here.


云南和贵州


云南和贵州穷的原因极其相似,所以Janus Dongye决定将其放在一起讨论。


跟分析甘肃一样,让我们先看看这两个省让人望而生畏的地貌。


01

大山的子孙


Janus Dongye这样描述道:

板块运动使得印度次大陆持续“挤压”,云贵地区的山越来越高、河流持续将峡谷侵蚀得越来越深,这里的地形变得越来越像“皱纹”。

As the Indian subcontinent continues to squeeze, terrains around here are becoming more and more similar to "wrinkles", as mountains are squeezed higher and the rivers continue to carve valleys deeper.



设想一下,您就生活在这“皱纹”中间。您被高耸的山脉和深深的峡谷环绕着。

Imagine you are living in the middle of the "wrinkle". You would be surrounded by tall mountains and deep valleys.








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