正文
One of the most effective ways to prepare for your entry into futures speculation prior to risking real dollars - and I hold this to be a universal way to study or prepare for any new undertaking - is through a careful study of books dealing with the technique and methodology of futures trading. In addition, I’ve often found articles and features in the various financial magazines, as well as the daily and weekly business periodicals, to be helpful. However, I am referring to articles concerning market strategy or articles that focus on general economic or business conditions. I specifically exclude pieces that attempt to predict future prices or price trends because, even if the forecast were correct - and that is usually not the case - you still have to confront the problem of whether it has already been discounted in the market. As a matter of fact, there is an old Wall Street maxim, “Buy on the rumor and sell on the news.” This is just another way of saying that by the time the news is made public, it is invariably too late to take any action on it.
在拿钱从事冒险之前，为期货投机做准备的一个最有效方法，便是仔细钻研有关期货技巧和方法的书籍。我认为，对于任何新事情，都要提前研究和准备。此外，我也觉得各种金融杂志，以及每天和每周发行的商业期刊，上面所写的文章或特稿十分有用。不过，我所指的是谈市场策略的文章，或重点放在一般经济或商业状况的文章。凡是想要预测期货价格或价格趋势的文章，我特别要把它们过滤掉，因为，即使预测准确（通常不是），你还是要面对一个问题，市场是不是已经消化吸收了这个预测。事实上，华尔街上有句古老的名言：“谣言出现时买入，消息出现时卖出。”这句话的意思是：当公布消息时再采取行动，其实已经迟了。
I can recall a situation several years ago when I had taken a big position on the long side of plywood for my clients and myself. Within a few days of my initial purchase, I had a visit from one of my larger discretionary accounts, a securities analyst for a major investment firm. He had just learned that I had put him into the plywood. Greatly agitated, he informed me that he recently attended a stockholders’ meeting at Georgia Pacific and had heard from one of the officers that they expected the plywood market to remain on the defensive for the balance of the year. As I was thinking of a diplomatic way of inviting him to stop telling me this irrelevant story, I watched in amazement as the pulled from his case the current issue of Time. It too offered a bearish analysis of wood and wood product prices. Being by nature a rather conservative investor (I wondered what was he doing in futures trading and why hadn’t he told me how conservative he was when he opened the account), he became a semi-basket case moments later. That occurred when I informed him that his plywood position was even bigger than he thought because I had closed out a nontrending grain position and had pyramided into more plywood.
几年前，有一次，我替客户和自己建立了一个很大的合板多头仓。刚买入的几天内，某大投资公司的证券分析师来看我，他是我的大客户，他刚知道我帮他买了合板。他感到焦虑，因为他刚参加了乔治亚太平洋公司的股东会议，听一位官员说，该公司预期那一年年底前，合板市场都会处于被动局面。我正准备用外交式的礼貌，请他不要告诉我这个故事，却惊见他从手提包里抽出一本当时的《时代周刊》。《时代周刊》也对木材和木材产品的价格做了偏空的分析。他天生是个相当保守的投资者（我很奇怪，他为什么要做期货，他在开户的时候，为什么不告诉我他很保守？），没过多久，我告诉他，他的合板仓位比他所想象的还要大，因为我已把没有明显趋势的谷物仓位给平掉，金字塔加仓，买了更多的合板，他绝望了。
It took a while to calm and relax him because, while he was an experienced and highly regarded securities analyst and a partner in a prominent investment firm, he had no previous exposure to futures trading. In the ensuing discussion, I made the following points: I didn’t care what the Georgia Pacific speaker said because (a) he was either uninformed about price trends in the wood market, or (b) he was informed but didn’t care to share his information with the public, or (c) he was correct, in which case the information had probably been already discounted in the market. In response to his query on why I had bought even more plywood, I told him that the strong market action position had confirmed the bull market, that it was the best acting position in our portfolio, and that, by this time, it showed good paper profits. Moreover, it is one of my strategies to pyramid onto the best performing positions while closing out the worst performing.
他的心过了一会儿才平静下来。虽然他是个很有经验和颇受敬重的证券分析师，也是一家著名投资公司的合伙人，但是以前没做过期货。接下来的讨论中，我说明了几点：我并不在意乔治亚太平洋公司那位先生说了些什么，无非三个理由：（a）他不知道木材市场的价格趋势，（b）他早已知道，但不愿跟大众分享他的信息，或者是（c）他讲得不错，但是这个信息可能已经被市场吸收消化了。为什么要买这么多的合板？我回答说市场明显上涨，它是我投资组合里面表现最好的仓位，账面上已有很不错的浮动利润。何况，我的策略是：表现最好的仓位要做金字塔加仓，表现最差的仓位要平掉。
I was still in semi-shock from the events just mentioned, but the next day brought something that took my mind off the plywood market and the strange meeting with my client. As I walked down the dock to my mailbox, I wondered if the package had arrived yet. The publisher assured me it had been posted, but as of last evening it was still in transit. Today I was in luck, however, for there it was in the marina office. My pace quickened as I walked back to my boat, settled into a comfortable deck chair, and purposefully opened the wrapping. For the next few hours I was totally immersed in studying and taking copious notes.
